Bitcoin is holding above $77,000 as U.S. equities hit record highs and prospects for a U.S.-Iran peace deal send crude oil tumbling, raising the question of whether BTC bulls are finally regaining control after months of drawdown.
BTC gained 1.6% in 24 hours to $77,500 on May 25, while Ethereum rose 1.4% and the CoinDesk 20 Index added 1.56%. The rally came alongside broad gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, with the Dow Jones hitting a record high on the same session.
At press time on May 26, Bitcoin had pulled back slightly to $76,587, down 0.64% over 24 hours, with a market cap of $1.536 trillion and $22.38 billion in daily trading volume. The price remains roughly 39% below its all-time high of $126,080, set on October 6, 2025.
BTC dominance stands at 58.2% of the total crypto market cap of $2.64 trillion, reflecting continued capital rotation toward Bitcoin over altcoins during the current uncertainty.
US-Iran deal optimism is driving the risk-on shift
The catalyst behind the cross-asset rally is growing optimism around a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal. Polymarket odds for a permanent agreement surged to 37% in May, up from roughly 14% on Friday, May 22. Iranian negotiators, including Foreign Minister Araghchi and Central Bank Governor Hemmati, arrived in Doha for talks mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, focused on Strait of Hormuz navigation and highly enriched uranium.
President Trump declared that “an Agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the various other Countries,” adding it would be “a Great Deal for all or, no Deal at all.”
“An Agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the various other Countries. It will only be a Great Deal for all or, no Deal at all — Back to the Battlefront”
— Donald Trump
The deal optimism hit energy markets hard. Crude oil fell 5.4% to $91.30 per barrel, while gold rose 1.35% to $4,570 per ounce and the U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.3%. The pattern echoes early May, when Bitcoin approached $80K resistance as oil crashed 6% on earlier Iran deal hopes.
Falling oil prices reduce inflation expectations, easing pressure on the Federal Reserve. That dynamic tends to benefit risk assets like equities and crypto, though Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned earlier in May that future rate hikes could not be ruled out if inflation stays elevated.
ETF outflows and Fear signal caution beneath the surface
Despite the price recovery, institutional flows tell a more cautious story. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded six consecutive trading days of net outflows totaling more than $1.55 billion since May 14. Total 2026 BTC ETF net inflows have collapsed to just $536 million, a fraction of the pace seen in late 2025.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 34, firmly in “Fear” territory, even as BTC holds above $77,000. That divergence, price holding while sentiment stays depressed, can signal quiet accumulation by larger players while retail exits.
Bitcoin’s 60-day price change of +11.28% from its lows contrasts with a -1.27% 30-day return, suggesting a base-building phase rather than a decisive trend reversal. With 20,034,500 BTC in circulation, roughly 95.4% of the 21 million maximum supply, scarcity dynamics continue tightening in the background.
Key levels and signals bulls need to watch
For bulls to confirm a genuine recovery rather than a dead-cat bounce, BTC needs to reclaim the $80,000 level that served as resistance in the late-May hammer reversal. Beyond that, $85,000 and the psychological $100,000 mark loom as major hurdles on the path back toward the $126,080 ATH.
On the downside, losing the $75,000 to $76,000 support zone would be a bearish signal. According to analyst Michael van de Poppe, Bitcoin could revisit the $60,000 region if that support breaks, though this remains one analyst’s bearish scenario rather than consensus.
The CLARITY Act advancing through the Senate Banking Committee on May 15 provides a regulatory tailwind, though traders initially sold into that news. Meanwhile, users exploring Web3 wallet tools and on-chain infrastructure continue building regardless of short-term price swings.
BTC dominance at 58.2% suggests capital is not yet rotating into altcoins, a pattern that typically precedes broader market rallies. If geopolitical calm holds and ETF outflows reverse, the $77,000 floor could become the launchpad bulls have been waiting for. If not, a Fear & Greed reading of 34 suggests the market is priced for disappointment.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.
